Managing Uncertainty: How to Handle Black Swans in the Economy
Brought to you by CFESA, FCSI, FEDA, MAFSI & NAFEM
The term black swan was popularized by finance professor and former Wall Street trader Nassim Taleb, who describes it as an event that is beyond normal expectations that is so rare even the possibility that it might occur is unknown, has a catastrophic impact when it does occur, and is explained in hindsight as if it were actually predictable. The COVID-19 black swan was followed by Saudi Arabia’s decision to significantly discount oil prices, disrupting the marketplace and providing the world with a second simultaneous black swan.
Health concerns, a dramatic decline into correction territory for the S&P 500, and declining oil and copper prices have combined to create a high level of uncertainty about what to expect from an economic perspective for the rest the year. This presentation brings an objective, numbers-driven approach to bear on these trends.
We will learn what precedents we can look at that give us some idea of what to expect and if recent events suggest that a bona fide recession is unfolding for 2020. We will also look at the economic signals we should be watching for and will cover what we expect to see in the months ahead.
Our webinar will be presented by Alan Beaulieu, president and principal of ITR Economics, a research and consulting firm. ITR predicts future economic trends with 94.7 percent accuracy rate and 60 years of correct calls. Alan has a reputation as an accurate, straightforward economist, and has been delivering award-winning workshops and economic analysis seminars in countries across the world to thousands of business owners and executives for the past 30 years. As the co-author of Prosperity in the Age of Decline, he is one of the country’s most sought-after economists and a good friend to all our organizations.