Restaurant Industry Sees Boost in May

May marked the third consecutive month of improving year-over-year same-store sales and traffic growth, according to new data from Black Box Intelligence.

Same-store sales growth rose 1.4 percent for chain restaurants in May, a 0.3 percentage point improvement from April. Meanwhile, traffic improved to a -1.0 percent growth rate. While still signaling an overall decline, it was a 0.6 percentage point increase from April’s year-over-year results. Over the past six months, only January saw better sales growth, the restaurant industry research firm noted. On the customer traffic side, the last time chain restaurants saw stronger same-store traffic growth was back in February 2023, excluding the outlier uptick that occurred in November 2024. “These latest results defied expectations,” Black Box Intelligence said. “Especially in the face of the rapidly eroding consumer optimism in recent months.”

The restaurant industry’s improvement was fueled by strong positive same-store sales growth in the casual dining and fast casual segments. Black Box Intelligence noted that casual dining has become the top-performing segment over the past three months despite struggling for most of 2024. Other segments — upscale casual, quick service and family dining — were essentially flat compared to May 2024, while same-store sales in fine dining were negative.

“There are brands that have been able to successfully listen to their consumers, engage and motivate their employees, focus on the basics of their brand promises, and deliver on consistent execution — and win in the marketplace as a result,” said Victor Fernandez, chief insights officer at Black Box Intelligence. “But this clearly is not the story for most.”

While May’s results were a boost for the industry, Fernandez said growth would continue to be a challenge for most operators for the rest of 2025. “However, the expectation continues to be softening conditions during the second half of the year, as well as harder year-over-year laps for the industry, which means softening in sales and traffic growth rates are to be expected,” he said.

The full Black Box Intelligence monthly restaurant trends review for May is available here.